Is Sentiment Too Good?

horse looking at cameraLike a cool breeze on a hot day…the post-Brexit market rally has soothed investors.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the fear gauge, fell significantly during the past few weeks, according to CNBC.com. The VIX measures investors’ concerns about future volatility. The lower the Index is; the calmer investors are about the future. In late June, the VIX rose as high as 25.76. Last week, it hovered around 12. Continue reading

Change is Constant

lights on deckLOOK INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL… Sure, the world has changed during the last decade or two. We’ve gained about 1.6 billion people. (There are now 7.2 billion of us, globally.) There is an app for almost everything. (Just try to ‘catch ‘em all!’) We even job hunt in cyberspace. (Make sure you customize your communications.) Continue reading

Markets Rebound… Queue The Next Crisis

wierd bridgeEvery time we are told the end of the world is nigh, markets rebound. Every time markets rebound, we collectively queue the next crisis. One of my absolute favorite Nick Murrayisms is the following, I’m paraphrasing here:  ”This time is different ALWAYS yields to this to shall pass.”

“Start your engines,” was not in the Department of Labor (DOL)’s June Employment Report Summary, but it may as well have been. Continue reading

Oh, Canada!

balloon over lakeCANADA, EH? If there were a beauty contest among nations, Canada would probably be crowned Miss Congeniality. The second largest country in the world – known for breathtaking temperatures (-40 degrees Fahrenheit), magnificent scenery, open spaces, and friendly natives – has captured the interest of both Brits and Americans during 2016.

Canada was the top theoretical relocation choice among Brits following the Brexit vote. Continue reading

Equity Risk Premium Is Looking Good… If

above the golden gateAs rates recede, the equity risk premium improves.

When the yield on 10-year Treasuries finished last week at 1.37 percent, a record closing low, Barron’s called it a Kübler-Ross rally.

Elizabeth Kübler-Ross was a Swiss psychiatrist whose research identified the five stages of grief: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. According to Barron’s, institutional money managers have reached the final stage of grief and accepted that bond yields may remain low for some time: Continue reading

What Is The Economic Value Of Housework?

Who Cooked Adam Smiths DinnerWHO COOKED ADAM SMITH’S DINNER? It’s the title of a new book and an interesting question about the value of housework. The New York Times offered two answers:

“The first is ‘self-motivated economic actors.’ As Adam Smith himself famously wrote, ‘It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.’ The second is his mother. Continue reading

Are You Worth Your Weight In ______?

saffronARE YOU WORTH YOUR WEIGHT IN PLATINUM OR, MAYBE, SAFFRON? Gold is not the only substance that commands a hefty price per pound. The Telegraph recently reported on the most valuable materials in the world by weight and some were quite surprising! Continue reading

Happy Independence Day!

the-american-flagHappy Independence Day

On July 3, 1776, John Adams wrote to his wife Abigail to tell her how important the events of the previous day had been. He opined that:

The second day of July, 1776, will be the most memorable epoch in the history of America. I am apt to believe that it will be celebrated by succeeding generations… It ought to be solemnized with pomp and parade, with shows, games, sports, guns, bells, bonfires, and illuminations, from one end of this continent to the other, from this time forward for evermore.

Yes, that reads July 2. Continue reading

What Happens Now? After Brexit?

EU-flagWHAT HAPPENS NOW? WHAT HAPPENS AFTER BREXIT?

It seems likely the British government will spend the next few weeks or months developing a strategy for its departure from the EU.

Right off the bat, the British need to put a new leader in place. Prime Minister David Cameron resigned after his side lost Thursday’s vote. Cameron’s comments suggest he does not plan to invoke Article 50. Continue reading

British Vote for Brexit!

brexit-1British Vote for Brexit!

SURPRISE! Britain is leaving the European Union (EU) after 40 years of membership.

Last Thursday, almost three-fourths of voters in Britain – about 30 million people, according to the BBC – cast ballots to determine whether the United Kingdom would remain in the EU. By a slim margin, the British people opted for Brexit. Continue reading